Intelligent air combat is a hot research topic in military aviation field and missile hit prediction is an important part of intelligent air combat. Aiming at the shortcomings of insufficient research on missile hit prediction, poor optimization ability of the algorithm, and low prediction accuracy of the model, a missile hit prediction model based on Adaptively-Mutated Chaotic Particle Swarm Optimization (AMCPSO) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) was proposed. Firstly, feature extraction of air combat data was carried out to build sample library for model training; then, the improved AMCPSO algorithm was used to optimize the penalty factor C and the kernel function parameter g in SVM, and the optimized model was used to predict the samples; finally, comparison tests with classical PSO algorithm, the BP neural network method and the method based on lattice were made. The results show that the global and local optimization ability of the proposed algorithm are both stronger, and the prediction accuracy of the proposed model is higher, which can provide a reference for missile hit prediction research.